3 roads lie ahead for Bitcoin – Which one will BTC choose?

By: ambcrypto|2025/05/03 02:15:01
0
Share
copy
Bitcoin’s momentum ratio outlined three potential scenarios for BTC’s next leg. Given that a correction has already occurred, a deeper pullback is less probable. Bitcoin [BTC] started May off with bullish momentum, closing at $97,406. This breakout above a critical resistance level strengthens the bull case, especially given BTC’s previous inability to sustain above this threshold since late February. However, the move also introduces bearish implications. Bitcoin’s price now sits above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price . On the 22nd of April, this shift pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to an unrealized profit state. The STH realized price, now at $93,342, represents the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, establishing a significant support floor for Bitcoin. So, while a new all-time high appears within striking distance, expecting a smooth, uninterrupted ascent would still be premature. Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaking the critical $97k overhead supply barrier. At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum sits in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at approximately 0.8 (80%). This means the market is positioned for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks. Source: CryptoQuant If the momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and maintains that level, key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would signal a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price into the $150k–$175k range. Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, STHs would start cashing out, leading to a potential correction to the $70k–$85k range. In the third scenario, if the ratio holds in the 0.8-1.0 range, BTC will likely stay in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k. In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions, but significant new exposure or buying pressure wouldn’t materialize. BTC’s most likely next move In the bullish scenario, if Bitcoin’s momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and sustains, we could see a rally toward the $150k–$175k range, echoing previous macro cycles. In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, while in 2021, it tripled after breaking prior highs – both cycles marked by NUPL and MVRV ratios entering euphoric zones. At press time, the MVRV sat at 2.16 — well below the 3.9 threshold historically seen near market tops. Hence, there’s still headroom before reaching overvaluation. This implies that the current market is not yet in a euphoric phase. Source: Glassnode Similarly, NUPL was holding at 0.54, indicating early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would align with past bull market peaks, suggesting room for further upside. Source: Glassnode However, if sustained buying pressure fails to emerge, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially with resistance-driven corrections. That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback. Keep an eye on these indicators, as they hold the key to Bitcoin’s next move. Share Share Tweet

You may also like

WEEX AI Trading Hackathon 2026: How Top AI Strategies Dominated Real Markets

WEEX AI Trading Hackathon demonstrates that effective trading — whether powered by AI or human judgment — relies on core principles: understanding market structure, maintaining conviction, prioritizing quality over quantity, and managing risk intelligently.

WEEX Ai Trading Hackathon vs. Other AI Trading Competitions: Which Is Better for You?

The AI trading competition landscape offers distinct paths for growth. The WEEX AI Trading Hackathon differentiates itself through its focus on real-market execution and practical viability, positioning it as a key platform for aspiring quantitative traders and strategists.

Is AI Trading Replacing Humans? WEEX Hackathon Reveals the Future of Fintech

The WEEX AI Trading Hackathon reveals that the future of trading is not about AI replacing humans, but about collaboration. AI enhances trading capabilities, while human judgment, ethics, and strategic oversight remain essential.

Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 9th - A Must-See! | Alpha Morning Report

1. Top News: This Week's White House Crypto Meeting Focuses on Stablecoin Yield, Banking Reps to Attend for First Time 2. Token Unlock: $MOVE

"2.5 Dip" Real Reason: Wall Street Deleveraging Induced Overreaction

Bitcoin has now intricately woven itself into the financial capital markets in a very complex manner, and when cornered towards the opposite direction, the upward move will be more vertical than ever before.

Kyle's review of Hyperliquid sparks controversy, Solitude Bank officially opens, what are the overseas crypto communities talking about today?

What Was Top of Mind for Foreigners in the Last 24 Hours?

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more