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Analyst: Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are in the late stage of a bull market, and any downturn in sentiment could quickly impact Bitcoin.
BlockBeats News, October 23rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel shared a post stating that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index are still in the late stage of a bull market: the S&P 500 has a 52-week return rate of +13%, indicating that the market is still in a risk-on mode.
The correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 is 0.26—indicating a moderate positive correlation: Bitcoin's trend usually aligns with the direction of the stock market, but it is not entirely dependent on the stock market.
The S&P 500 remains highly sensitive to macro factors and political discourse, so any cooling of sentiment could quickly impact Bitcoin.
After entering the fourth quarter of 2025, the market's focus has shifted to corporate earnings. After experiencing two years of rising yields, the market is beginning to reassess actual performance. The third-quarter earnings season is currently in full swing: out of the 58 companies that have reported earnings, all have exceeded expectations, with an average outperformance of 571 basis points; the expected earnings growth rate has also been revised up from 7% to 8%—these are typical characteristics of the late stage of a bull market.
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