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Investment Bank Outlook for Jackson Hole Conference Shows Significant Rate Cut Expectation Differentiation
BlockBeats News, August 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework assessment at the Kansas City Fed's annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 22 at 10 am Eastern Time (10 pm Beijing Time). Major investment banks have the following expectations for Powell's speech:
UBS: It is expected that Powell may pave the way for a rate cut starting in September and continuing through the end of the year.
UBS: Given last week's data, Powell may be willing to hint at the Fed's inclination to cut rates in September at the meeting.
Russell Investments: The Jackson Hole meeting may dampen expectations for a Fed rate cut, with a September rate cut being "possible" rather than "certain," with a rate cut of 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points.
ING: Recently, three Fed officials (Daly, Cook, and Kashkari) expressed concern about the deterioration of the labor market, which appears to be a precursor to an official shift to a more dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank annual symposium.
MUFG: The risk of the Jackson Hole meeting is that Powell may not provide a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, allowing the Fed to continue evaluating the upcoming data before the September FOMC meeting. This may help suppress short-term downward pressure on the US dollar.
Bank of America: We remain skeptical of a Fed rate cut this year. Powell stated in July that as long as the unemployment rate remains in a narrow range, he will be satisfied with low job growth. It now appears that this scenario is becoming a reality, and Powell's speech in Jackson Hole will give him an opportunity to "walk the talk." (FXStreet)
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