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Trump Remarks 'Lock In' Fed Chair Nomination, Kevin Warsh Nomination Odds Skyrocket
BlockBeats News, January 17th. Today, President Trump, when asked about White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, said, "I want him to continue to serve in his current position, we wait and see." This statement implies that Trump may have another candidate in mind for the Fed chairmanship, shifting the market's expectations from a split between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh to Warsh taking the lead alone. It is worth noting that before Trump's remarks today, Hassett himself also commented on this, saying, "Warsh and Rieder would also be great Fed chairs." Perhaps Hassett already has some understanding of Trump's final choice.
Forecasting market Polymarket data shows that currently, Hassett's probability of being nominated as chair has dropped to 15%, on par with Fed Governor Waller, while Kevin Warsh's nomination probability has risen to over 60%, making him the clear frontrunner, leaving other candidates far behind.
Compared to Trump's close ally and "absolute dove" Hassett, Kevin Warsh is more hawkish. However, the market expects Warsh to still support rate cuts while advancing balance sheet reduction (QT). Warsh earlier in 2025 put forward the view that "inflation is a choice," believing that inflation is not caused by the supply chain or geopolitics but rather by the Fed's own policy decisions. Warsh is extremely bullish on the U.S. economic outlook, believing that AI and deregulation will bring about a productivity boom similar to that of the 1980s.
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